Process-Tracing is a well-established methods of causal inquiry in political science and has recently made its appearance in evaluation circles, where it remains under development. At the interstice of detective work and Bayesian mathematics, process tracing has the potential to improve the rigor and transparency of evaluation findings when studying complex processes of change. This demonstration session will take the learners through a real-world example of the application of process-tracing to the evaluation of World Bank’s support to social accountability and citizens’ engagement in developing countries. The six steps of process tracing will be covered in an interactive manner, including the application of the Bayes formula. Caveats and challenges in applicability will also be discussed. By the end of the session, the participants will be ready to become a Bayesian Columbo in training

Speaker Info:

  • Estelle Raimondo, First Author or Discussion Group Leader
  • Eduardo Fernandez Maldonado, Second Author or Discussion Group Leader